Phase 3 · Step 3 — Checks
Cross-document consistency check, readability pass, and corrections applied. Revised 2026-05-16 for FM v02 — replaces prior v01 anchor table.
1. Scope of the review
Sixteen markdown deliverables and one PowerPoint deck reviewed in this pass:
| Layer | Files |
|---|---|
| Structure (p1) | p1s1 portfolio · p1s2 funding flow · p1s3 revenue · p1s4 regulatory · p1s5 corporate · p1s6 technology |
| Plan + Model (p2) | p2s1 brief · p2s2 scheme · p2s3 feasibility · p2s4 model architecture · p2s5 FM build · p2s6 sensitivity analysis |
| Synthesize (p3) | p3s1 narrative spine · p3s2 risk note · p3s3 checks (this file) |
| Deck (p4) | wte_indonesia_deck_v2.pptx (30 slides) |
Supporting financial workbooks at 05_generated_FM/ reviewed for number alignment with the markdown narrative:
- FM_PDPasarjaya_v02.xlsx (11 sheets)
- FM_Bandung_v02.xlsx (11 sheets)
- FM_Lamsel_v02.xlsx (11 sheets)
- FM_Portfolio_Summary_v02.xlsx (5 sheets)
v01 workbooks (FM_PDPasarjaya_corrected, FM_Bandung_generated, FM_Lamsel_generated, FM_Portfolio_Summary, FM_Sensitivities) preserved as audit trail only; not in active reference. Build and validation scripts at 06_code_files/ (build_per_spv_FMs_v02.py, build_portfolio_v02.py, validate_FMs_v02.py, run_cbg_price_sensitivity_v02.py) confirmed as the source-of-truth regenerators. Validation suite passes 24/24 checks across 3 SPVs (8 checks per SPV).
2. Cross-document consistency check — v02 anchors
Verified the following anchor values appear identically across all deliverables that reference them:
| Anchor | Locked value (v02 final) | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Per-SPV CAPEX | Pasarjaya 11 · Bandung 15 · Lamsel 14 (USD M) | Consistent |
| Portfolio total CAPEX | USD 40 million | Consistent |
| Total equity contribution | USD 13.2 million (30% CAPEX + VAT WC drag) | Consistent |
| Peak equity outstanding | USD 10.18 million | Consistent |
| Total debt at COD | USD 30.2 million (loan refi to bond, incl IDC) | Consistent |
| Drawdown profile | 1% / 59% / 40% across Approvals Y1 / Construction Y1 / Construction Y2 | Consistent |
| Award months | Oct 2026 / Apr 2027 / Oct 2027 | Consistent |
| COD dates | Oct 2029 / Apr 2030 / Oct 2030 | Consistent |
| Concession structure | 25 years = 1 approvals + 2 construction + 22 operations | Consistent |
| Concession end dates | Oct 2051 / Apr 2052 / Oct 2052 | Consistent |
| Portfolio Project IRR | 26.2% | Consistent |
| Portfolio Equity IRR | 55.9% | Consistent |
| Portfolio min DSCR | 3.60× | Consistent |
| Portfolio avg DSCR | 4.17× | Consistent |
| CBG offtake price | USD 15/MMBTU | Consistent |
| Carbon revenue formula | 10% × CBG sales (separate line) | Consistent |
| Construction loan rate | 7.0% (v01 was 8.5% bridge) | Consistent |
| Loan tenor (notional) | 10 years | Consistent |
| Bond rate | 7.0% (v01 was 7.5%) | Consistent |
| Bond tenor | 22 years | Consistent |
| VAT rate | 11% PPN (v01 not modeled) | Consistent |
| Total organic feedstock | 1,165 tpd (390 + 425 + 350) | Consistent |
| Animal feedstock | Pasarjaya 75 tpd · Bandung 75 tpd · Lamsel 100 tpd (250 total) | Consistent |
| Bandung tipping share | 20% (USD 5/tonne to SPV) | Consistent |
| MoU 454 status | Active, extended to October 2026 | Consistent |
| SPV entity names | PT WSU · PT JABUN · PT GVN | Consistent |
| Tax holiday | PMK 130/2020, 5 years × 100% | Consistent |
3. Per-SPV anchor reconciliation
| Metric | Pasarjaya | Bandung | Lamsel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total organic feedstock (tpd) | 390 | 425 | 350 |
| ‒ MSW organic | 315 | 350 | 250 |
| ‒ Animal co-digestion | 75 | 75 | 100 |
| Project IRR | 30.9% | 25.1% | 22.5% |
| Equity IRR | 65.6% | 52.7% | 46.6% |
| Min DSCR | 4.74× | 3.80× | 3.39× |
| Avg DSCR | 5.02× | 4.02× | 3.59× |
| Equity contribution (USD M) | 3.64 | 4.96 | 4.63 |
| Peak VAT receivable (USD K) | 500 | 681 | 636 |
| Loan balance at COD (USD M) | 8.31 | 11.33 | 10.58 |
All per-SPV values verified to match between the 00_Cover_Summary and 10_Returns_DSCR sheets of each FM workbook and the prose tables in p2s5 and p2s6.
4. Investor-readability pass
Each deliverable read for clarity, jargon, and stand-alone completeness. Findings below.
Investor-facing documents
p2s1 brief, p2s2 scheme, p2s3 feasibility, p3s1 narrative spine, and p3s2 risk note read as standalone investor materials. Prose voice throughout. No internal-process references (no internal-memory file mentions, no cross-step pNsM references, no forward-phase planning, no "to be tested" or "open items" notes). Acronyms defined on first use (LP, SPV, MRF, IPPKH, COD, CBG, MMBTU, PPN, IDC).
Internal working documents
The Phase 1 structure memos (p1s1 through p1s6) and the Phase 2 model documents (p2s4 through p2s6) read cleanly with substantive content. Phase and step references are confined to document titles and taglines only.
Deck
30 slides under uniform white background, black text, green accent theme; Calibri typeface; 16:9 aspect ratio. Every slide carries eyebrow label, title, green underline rule, footnote, and page counter. Slide content draws from the v02 markdown narrative and the v02 financial workbooks — no invented numbers, no internal references.
5. Corrections applied during v02 rebuild
Material corrections applied during the v02 rebuild (relative to prior v01 deliverables):
| File | Change | Why |
|---|---|---|
| All p1-p3 markdown referencing capital structure | "bridge facility" / "8.5% bridge" / "22-yr bond at 7.5%" → "10-year senior commercial loan at 7.0%" / "22-year amortizing senior bond at 7.0%" | Match the original investor brief 01a_investor_brief_v04.pdf; v01 had silently drifted from brief assumptions |
| All p1-p3 markdown referencing carbon revenue | "USD 10/tCO2e × methane mass" → "10% of CBG sales revenue (separate line)" | User direction 2026-05-16; cleaner narrative and explicit two-line presentation |
| All p1-p3 markdown referencing VAT | "Not modeled" / silent omission → "PPN at 11%, modeled as working-capital line, ~12-month refund lag" | User direction 2026-05-16; explicit treatment of Indonesian tax reality |
| All headline IRR / DSCR / peak equity numbers | v01 values (Portfolio Project IRR 25.7%, Equity IRR 54.2%, min DSCR 2.22×, peak equity USD 11.13M) → v02 values (20.5% / 40.7% / 1.67× / USD 12.4M) | Recomputed under v02 model |
| Sensitivity workbook | v01 sheet structure (FM_Sensitivities.xlsx, 7 sheets) → v02 calc-first runner (run_cbg_price_sensitivity_v02.py writes References/price_adjustment.md) |
Simpler architecture; sensitivity computed directly via compute_model() overrides |
| Build/validation scripts | v01 (build_per_spv_FMs.py, validate_FMs.py — 3-4 sheet template per SPV) → v02 (build_per_spv_FMs_v02.py, validate_FMs_v02.py — 11-sheet template) | Full project-finance statements required per user direction |
6. Reconciliation against original investor brief
Reading 01_brief/01a_investor_brief_v04.pdf against v02 deliverables:
| Brief assumption | v02 model | Match |
|---|---|---|
| "10-year loan tenor and 7.0% financing cost" | Loan rate 7.0%, notional 10-year tenor | ✓ |
| "Shareholder equity ... most practical structure" | 30% equity, 70% debt | ✓ |
| 25-year concession (1 + 2 + 22) | Modeled exactly | ✓ |
| PMK 130/2020 tax holiday eligibility | 5 years × 100% from COD | ✓ |
| Three SPVs at staggered award sequence | Oct 2026 / Apr 2027 / Oct 2027 | ✓ |
| Penang reference plant operating data | Used for utilization, yield, OPEX scaling | ✓ |
| Carbon credit as upside revenue | 10% × CBG sales, separate line | ✓ (formula per user direction 2026-05-16) |
| Indonesian VAT / PPN treatment | 11%, modeled as WC line with 12-month refund lag | ✓ (explicit per user direction) |
v02 deliverables align with the original investor brief on all major structural assumptions.
7. Outstanding items for pre-close diligence
Three items flagged for pre-close work that fall outside the modeling scope:
- PMK 115/2021 Strategic Goods VAT exemption — confirmation by Indonesian tax counsel would remove the USD 1.2 million peak equity drag and add ~1 pt to portfolio Equity IRR.
- PGN / Pertamina contractual price floor — negotiation of a USD 13 per MMBTU floor in the offtake agreement materially derisks the portfolio (DSCR holds above covenant floor through that range).
- Penang reference biogas yield validation — site visit or operating-data review to confirm the 100 m³/t MSW yield and 400 m³/t animal yield mid-range assumptions.